Net Migration Targets: A Political Strategy or an Impossibility?
A re-elected Coalition government would face the monumental task of slashing net migration of students and temporary skilled workers by an astounding 90% to meet its goal of reducing overall net migration to 160,000 in the next financial year. This ambitious claim has sparked analytical discourse, revealing myriad obstacles and realities.
The Practical Challenges Ahead
Recent analysis by The Guardian highlights the enormity of this challenge. Experts are skeptical about Peter Dutton’s ability to fulfill this pivotal election promise just days before the polls. Alan Gamlen, director of the Australian National University’s Migration Hub, noted that while the target may be rhetorically beneficial for campaigning, achieving it seems almost impossible. “Impossibly heroic net migration targets are a textbook feature of election campaigning around the world,” he explained.
The Coalition has historically positioned itself as tough on migration. Still, their record tells a different story, as they presided over significant increases in temporary migration while enforcing stringent asylum seeker policies. The stark contrast raises questions about the evident shift in narrative just ahead of elections.
Understanding Migration Dynamics
It’s crucial to evaluate Dutton’s migration promises, particularly regarding their connection to the housing crisis. He asserted, “We’re going to cut migration and we’re going to stop foreign buyers from owning Australian homes,” linking the surge in net migration to escalating housing costs.
Dutton proposes two main adjustments:
- Permanent Migration: Reduce the permanent migration program by 45,000 to a total of 140,000 in 2025-26, with gradual increases thereafter.
- Net Overseas Migration (NOM): Aim to cut net overseas migration by 100,000, from an expected estimate of 260,000 to just 160,000.
Yet the numbers present a daunting reality. Historically, about 70% of recipients of permanent visas are already in Australia. This implies that cutting permanent migration by 45,000 would only yield a nominal reduction of around 13,500 in net overseas migration.
The Economic Implications
The Coalition’s ambitious target introduces significant risks and repercussions. Experts argue that such drastic cuts could inflict considerable damage on the economy, especially as businesses already grapple with labor shortages. Significant reductions in foreign student enrollment would also threaten the financial stability of many universities, which have increasingly relied on international fees.
The envisioned decrease in net migration could lead to essential service shortages, especially in a labor market already under strain. The prospect of restricting entry for temporary skilled workers and students threatens to create even more economic instability.
The Numbers Breakdown
For the Coalition to achieve their desired reduction from 445,640 people in net migration for 2023-24 to just 160,000 in 2025-26, severe cuts to temporary migration would need to be implemented. Notably, Dutton excluded working holidaymakers from their targets, which accounted for nearly 69,000 migrants in the past financial year.
Thus, the required decrease in temporary net migration would have to emerge from a pool of 291,990 students, skilled temporary workers, and visitors. The projected consequences are staggering; international student numbers could plummet from over 176,000 to a mere 1,375.
Assessing the Feasibility
While the numbers suggest a steep uphill battle for Dutton, a Coalition spokesperson maintained optimism, claiming they could significantly cut NOM in their first year. They did not address the analytical concerns raised regarding achieving this ambitious target.
Many experts, including former immigration department deputy secretary Abul Rizvi, express skepticism about a credible pathway to success. The net migration threshold typically hovers around 260,000, and efforts to push below this could lead to significant economic nuisance. Rizvi cautioned that if Dutton’s government attempted to manipulate these figures excessively, they risk creating widespread challenges for numerous industries reliant on migrant labor.
Conclusion: A Political Gamble
The current discourse surrounding net migration and Dutton’s promises underscores a critical intersection of immigration policy and political strategy. With an impending election, the veracity and viability of such ambitious targets prompt considerable scrutiny. As the Coalition gears up for the polls, the implications of their immigration policies have ignited vital conversations about Australia’s future economic landscape.
