The Perception Gap: Migration in the UK Amid Falling Numbers
Recent polling data has revealed a striking disconnect between reality and public perception regarding immigration in the UK. According to exclusive findings shared with the Guardian, a significant majority of UK voters believe that immigration is rising, despite a marked decline in the actual number of individuals entering the country.
Public Confidence in Border Control
The poll, conducted by More in Common, highlights a worrying lack of confidence among voters regarding the government’s ability to manage the UK’s borders. Approximately 67% of respondents expressed the belief that immigration was increasing, while a staggering 74% indicated they had little or no faith in the government’s control measures. These results pose a significant challenge for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s administration, especially given its hardening stance on immigration in recent months.
Recent Migration Trends
Interestingly, official statistics reveal that net migration fell by more than two-thirds to a post-pandemic low during the year concluding in June 2025. Yet, the public sentiment tells a different story. Among voters of the Reform Party, four out of five believe immigration levels have grown. Meanwhile, more than 63% of these voters think it has “increased significantly.” This gap between perception and reality reflects a persistent public cynicism about migration issues.
Government Actions and Public Reaction
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has committed to implementing a “substantial reform” of the UK’s asylum system, which includes stringent policies intended to make the UK less appealing to migrants and refugees. Proposed measures range from extending the wait time for refugees to gain British citizenship to curbing family reunions and even confiscating assets from asylum claimants. These hardline policies have sparked backlash, even among Labour MPs, revealing divisions within the party.
Despite these aggressive measures, faith in the government has waned. Confidence among Labour voters dropped by 17%, indicating a growing credibility gap that could have serious political ramifications. “The Labour government is facing a growing credibility gap on migration,” said Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common.
The Small Boat Dilemma
One focal point in the public’s view on immigration is the issue of small boats crossing the Channel, a topic that resonates deeply due to its visibility in media and political discourse. Polling indicates that a whopping 79% of voters want the government’s priority to be halting these crossings, rather than focusing on reducing legal net immigration. In the year ending June 2025, the number of individuals arriving on small boats increased to 43,000, although this is still a minor fraction of overall migration, comprising less than 5% of the total inflow.
Discrepancies in Migration Attribution
Even as the government boasts about reduced immigration figures, public opinion remains skeptical. When presented with accurate statistics, fewer than one in five people attributed the decline in net migration to the current Labour government, with many assigning credit to the previous Conservative administration. This trend underscores a broader disillusionment with political narratives around migration.
The Broader Economic Impact
In addition to public perceptions, the declining number of visa applications signifies potential challenges for the economy. For instance, skilled worker visa applications fell by 36%, and health and care sector applications plummeted by 51% in 2025. This raises critical concerns about the sustainability of essential services like health care, which rely heavily on migrant labor.
Addressing the Migration Narrative
Kim Johnson, Labour MP for Liverpool Riverside, expressed concerns about the potential repercussions of Labour adopting hardline policies reminiscent of those from the Reform Party. She warned that such mimicry could escalate racism and further marginalize vital sectors, particularly health and social care. Johnson advocates for a more compassionate approach that recognizes the contributions of migrants to British society, emphasizing the need for a positive vision amidst divisive rhetoric.
In summary, the current immigration narrative in the UK reflects a complex interplay of policy, public perception, and political strategy. Despite official figures indicating a significant decline in net migration, widespread misconceptions continue to shape voter beliefs and, by extension, government actions. The forthcoming months will be crucial for both the Labour government and the public as they navigate this contentious issue.
