The Coalition’s Surprising Approach to International Student Caps
In a significant shift from prior policy discussions, last year the Coalition made headlines by opposing Labor’s proposal to impose caps on the number of international students allowed in Australia. This unexpected decision set the stage for an intensified debate on how best to manage international student numbers—a topic now back in the spotlight following Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s recent announcement.
Dutton’s Radical Proposal
On a Sunday in early April 2025, Dutton brought forth a bold new policy aimed at limiting international student enrolment in Australia. The proposed measures include enforcing tighter enrolment limits at public universities, increasing visa application fees, and revising the conditions surrounding temporary graduate visas—which allow former international students to stay in Australia to work post-study. Dutton’s stance appears to be twofold: it seeks to deter prospective international students from applying altogether or to nudge them away from their desired educational institutions.
Coalition vs. Labor: The Pressure on Housing Markets
Both the Coalition and Labor agree that the growing number of international students is exerting significant pressure on housing markets across the nation. However, the Coalition has raised concerns that certain courses are disproportionately filled with international students, sometimes comprising up to 80% of enrolments. To remedy this, Dutton’s proposal would cap the share of international students at public universities to approximately 25% of all new enrolments. This move could potentially result in a reduction of 30,000 new international students each year compared to Labor’s estimated numbers.
Current Labor Policies and Strategies
Labor’s approach to managing international student numbers shares some common ground with the Coalition, but with distinct differences. In an attempt to gain more control, Labor aimed to empower the education minister with the authority to place caps on international student enrolments by institution and course. Their plan proposed a cap of 270,000 new enrolments for 2025, a reduction from the previous year’s 323,000, with exceptions for specific categories like postgraduate research students.
However, facing opposition from both the Coalition and the Greens, Labor pivoted to a strategy using existing migration powers. They issued a ministerial direction that effectively established a de facto cap by instructing immigration officials to prioritize student visa applications until enrolments approached the blocked caps, creating a bottleneck for subsequent applications.
Early Indicators of Declining Applications
Early signs indicating the effectiveness of Labor’s new strategies show a decrease in the number of "confirmations of enrolment" issued by education providers. This has a direct impact on prospective students’ abilities to apply for visas. Analysis reveals that student visa applications for the first quarter of 2025 have dropped significantly when measured against the same months in previous years, suggesting that the changes in policy are already creating barriers to enrolment.
Implications for Universities
The Coalition’s new policy, emphasizing that the caps will be applied as a percentage of total new enrolments, would drastically affect Australian public universities. While Labor’s policy is calculated based on historic enrolments, the Coalition is proposing to set the cap at around 25% of new enrolments based on current data. This means that under Coalition’s plan, the number of incoming international students in public universities could drop to approximately 115,000 per year, starkly less than the 139,000 projected under Labor.
This could challenge universities, especially those in the Group of Eight consortium, which are accustomed to high international enrolment numbers. Dutton contends that these institutions have long admitted “excessive numbers” of international students, contributing to the pressures felt across various sectors in Australia.
Private Education Providers: A Different Approach
For private education providers, the Coalition’s approach is distinct, promising that caps imposed on them will differ from those placed on public universities. While these private institutions are also facing caps—estimated to be around 125,000—the specific details remain somewhat ambiguous, which could lead to unequal impacts across the different sectors of education.
Moreover, the ongoing changes in government policy toward vocational education have already suppressed demand in that area. As a result, many vocational education providers may find themselves unable to fully utilize the allocated caps under Labor’s previous proposal, potentially paving the way for adjustments in caps for private education providers.
Rising Visa Application Costs
In an attempt to further reduce international student numbers and manage fiscal resources, the Coalition has proposed increasing student visa application fees to $5,000 for those applying to Group of Eight universities, and $2,500 for others. This dramatic increase—more than tripling the fee—could serve as a formidable barrier for many prospective students considering a move to Australia for their studies.
The Temporary Graduate Visa Review
The Coalition is also pledging a swift review of the temporary graduate visa program to address any potential misuse, particularly as it relates to gaining access to the Australian labor market. The previous government has already made alterations that limit the duration and eligibility for these visas, affecting the future plans of many former international students.
A Shift in the Landscape of International Education
Overall, the Coalition’s new approach signifies a dramatic shift in Australia’s international education landscape—one that is characterized by stricter regulations, heightened financial barriers, and limits on student mobility. As both major parties reevaluate their strategies, it is evident that the days of unlimited international student numbers in Australia are drawing to a close, signaling a future where international education may fundamentally change in terms of accessibility and diversity.
